Isishwankathelo:Ukusukela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJuni, amaxabiso entsimbi ekrwada, amalahle okucokisa, ibhilethi, intsimbi yesihlunu, umbhobho wentsimbi kunye nezinye izinto ezininzi zorhwebo aye atshintshatshintsha kakhulu. Nangona imigaqo-nkqubo yemali eyahluka-hlukeneyo nelumkileyo ikhuthaze ukuphucuka okupheleleyo koqoqosho lwangaphakathi kulo nyaka, ishishini lokwakha liye labuyela kancinane kulo nyaka. Ukongeza, imeko yangaphandle isenzima kwaye inzima, isiphumo sokurhoxiswa komgaqo-nkqubo kuqoqosho oluphambili sandile, kwaye kukho imiqobo emininzi ekukhululweni kwemfuno yangaphakathi. Ubudlelwane bokubonelela kunye nokufunwa kweendidi zetsimbi kulo nyaka ngokusisiseko kwipatheni "yokulindela okuqinileyo kunye nenyaniso ebuthathaka". Njengombhobho odityanisiweyo obalulekileyo kushishino lokwakha, eli phepha liza kuhlalutya ngokufutshane ukusebenza kwemibhobho edityanisiweyo eTshayina kwiinyanga zamva nje.
Ⅰ. Ixabiso lemibhobho edityanisiweyo lehla kakhulu unyaka nonyaka
Ukujonga kwixabiso lemibhobho edityanisiweyo yesizwe kwiminyaka emine yakutshanje, indawo yokuqala yexabiso lombhobho odityanisiweyo ekuqaleni kuka-2023 ngokucacileyo isezantsi kunexesha elifanayo kulo nyaka uphelileyo. NgoJanuwari 2, 2023, ixabiso eliphakathi kwelizwe lemibhobho edityanisiweyo yayiyi-4,492 yuan/toni, yehla nge-677 yuan/toni unyaka nonyaka; Ukusukela nge-7 kaJuni ngo-2023, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lemibhobho edityanisiweyo ngo-2023 yayiyi-4,153 yuan/toni, yehle nge-1,059 yuan/toni okanye i-20.32% unyaka nonyaka.
Ukusukela ngo-2021, amaxabiso eemveliso aqhubekile esebenza kwinqanaba eliphezulu, iPPI kuqoqosho oluphambili ifikelele kwirekhodi ephezulu, kwaye amaxabiso aphezulu eemveliso ezinyukayo ziye zaqhubeka zithunyelwa kwindawo ephakathi kunye nesezantsi. Ukususela ngo-Juni 2022, kunye nemfuno ephantsi eqhubekayo yeemveliso ezigqityiweyo, amaxabiso ezinto ezibonakalayo ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe aye ahla ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lemibhobho yensimbi liye laqala ukuhla kakhulu. Emva kwamaza amaninzi okuhla ngokukhawuleza kumaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza, ixabiso lemibhobho edityanisiweyo kulo nyaka liphantsi kakhulu kunelo xesha linye kunyaka ophelileyo. Kwikota yokuqala, phantsi kolindelo olukhulu olungcono, umda wemfuno esezantsi uphucukile, kwaye ixabiso lemibhobho edityanisiweyo yelizwe lenyuka kancinci. Nangona kunjalo, ngokusilela kwemfuno yesiqhelo yexesha eliphakamileyo, amaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza kunye neemveliso ezigqityiweyo zaqala ukuwa, kodwa ukuhla kwexabiso akuzange kunyuse imfuno yokwenyani. NgoJuni, ixabiso lemibhobho edityanisiweyo likazwelonke sele likwinqanaba eliphantsi kwiminyaka yakutshanje.
Ⅱ. Uluhlu lwentlalo lwesizwe lwemibhobho edityanisiweyo luphantsi unyaka nonyaka
Ukuchaphazeleka ngokuguquguquka okukhulu kunye nokutshintsha ngokukhawuleza kwexabiso lombhobho odityanisiweyo kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, abarhwebi abaninzi bakhetha iindlela zokulawula ezizinzileyo kulo nyaka. Ukuze kuncitshiswe uxinzelelo oluziswe yi-inventory backlog, uluhlu lwempahla ubukhulu becala lugcinwe kwinqanaba eliphakathi neliphantsi. Emva kokuba ixabiso lemibhobho edibeneyo litshintshile kwaye lawa ngo-Matshi, i-inventory yentlalo yeepayipi ezidibeneyo e-China yehla ngokukhawuleza. Ukususela ngomhla we-2 kuJuni, uluhlu lwentlalo lwesizwe lwemibhobho edibeneyo yayiyi-820,400 yeetoni, ukunyuka kwe-0.47% inyanga nenyanga kunye nokuncipha kwe-10.61% ngonyaka, efikelele kwinqanaba eliphantsi le-inventory kwiminyaka emithathu yakutshanje. Kutshanje, uninzi lwabarhwebi banoxinzelelo oluncinci lwempahla.
Umzobo 2: Uluhlu lweNtlalo lweMbhobho e-Welded (Iyunithi: iitoni ze-10,000)
Ⅲ.Inzuzo yombhobho odibeneyo ikwizinga eliphantsi kwiminyaka emithathu edlulileyo
Ngokombono wengeniso yengeniso yoshishino lwemibhobho edityanisiweyo, inzuzo yoshishino lwemibhobho edityanisiweyo iguquguquka kakhulu kulo nyaka, enokwahlulwa ngokwezigaba ezilandelayo. Ukusukela nge-10 kaMeyi ka-2023, inzuzo yemihla ngemihla yoshishino lwemibhobho edityanisiweyo ukusuka ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMatshi yayiyi-yuan eyi-105/toni, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka ngama-39 yuan/toni; Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMatshi, umndilili wengeniso yoshishino lwemihla ngemihla kwimibhobho eyenziwe ngamazimba yayiyi-157 yuan/toni, ukwanda kwe-28 yuan/toni unyaka nonyaka; Ukususela ngo-Epreli ukuya kuMeyi, umyinge wengeniso yoshishino lwemihla ngemihla yombhobho odityanisiweyo wawuyi-82 yuan/toni, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka nge-126 yuan/toni; Ukususela ngo-Epreli ukuya kuMeyi, umyinge wengeniso yoshishino lwemihla ngemihla kwimibhobho eyenziwe ngamazimba yayiyi-20 yuan/toni, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-yuan engama-44/toni; Okwangoku, inzuzo yoshishino lwemibhobho edibeneyo ikwizinga eliphantsi kwiminyaka emithathu yakutshanje.
Ukususela ekuqaleni konyaka, zonke iindawo zelizwe ziye zakhawulezisa ukwakhiwa kweeprojekthi ezinkulu ukunceda uqoqosho "luqale kakuhle". Kwikota yokuqala, ekupheleni kokuthintela ubhubhane kunye nokulawula ubhubhane, ukulindela kweemarike kwakuphuculwe, kwaye amaxabiso ezinto ezibonakalayo kunye neemveliso ezigqityiweyo zisebenza ngokuqinileyo. Eqhutywa “lulindelo oluqinileyo”, iifektri zemibhobho edityanisiweyo kunye neefektri zemibhobho eneziziba zazinomdla oqinileyo wokuxhasa amaxabiso, kwaye ukunyuka kwakuphezulu kunoko kwentsimbi yentsimbi, kwaye iingeniso zamkelekile. Nangona kunjalo, ekupheleni kuka-Matshi, imfuno elindelekileyo ayizange ikhutshwe. Njengoko ubushushu buphela kwaye iindaba ezimbi zemali zamazwe ngamazwe zigqithisekile, ukulindela okunamandla kubuyela kwinyani, kwaye amaxabiso eefektri zepayipi kunye nabathengisi baqala ukuwa phantsi koxinzelelo. NgoJuni, inzuzo yoshishino lwemibhobho edibeneyo ibe kwinqanaba eliphantsi kwiminyaka emithathu edlulileyo, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ithuba lokuqhubeka nokuwa ngokukhawuleza liphantsi.
Umzobo 3: I-Inventory yeNtlalo ye-Welded Pipe (Iyunithi: iitoni ze-10,000)
Umzobo 4: Utshintsho lwenzuzo yombhobho wegalvanized kwiminyaka yakutshanje (iyunithi: yuan / ton)
Umthombo weDatha: Idatha yeNsimbi yeNsimbi
IV. Imveliso kunye noluhlu lwamaShishini oVeliso lwemibhobho eWelded
Xa sijonga imveliso kunye noluhlu lwabavelisi bemibhobho edityanisiweyo, ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMeyi kulo nyaka, imveliso iyonke yomzi-mveliso wemibhobho yehle kakhulu unyaka nonyaka, kwaye izinga lokusetyenziswa komthamo lihleli kuma-60.2%. Ngaphantsi komlinganiselo ophantsi wokusetyenziswa komthamo unyaka nonyaka, uluhlu lwempahla yefektri yombhobho yayisoloko iphezulu kunelo xesha linye kunyaka ophelileyo. Ukususela nge-2 Juni 2023, ngokweenkcukacha-manani zokulandelela abavelisi bemibhobho edityanisiweyo abangama-29 kuthungelwano lwethu, isiphumo sisonke semibhobho edityanisiweyo ukusuka ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMeyi yayiziitoni ezizigidi ezisi-7.64, ukuncipha konyaka-ngonyaka kweetoni ezingama-582,200 okanye i-7.08%. Okwangoku, uluhlu lwemizi-mveliso yemibhobho edityanisiweyo yi-81.51 yeetoni, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka ngeetoni ezingama-34,900.
Kule minyaka mibini yakutsha nje, ichatshazelwe luxinzelelo lokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi, ukuncipha kwemfuno yangaphakathi yomlambo kunye neminye imiba emininzi, imveliso yombhobho odityanisiweyo iyonke yeefektri zemibhobho yesiqhelo yasekhaya igcine inqanaba eliphantsi. Ekuqaleni konyaka omtsha, ukuze kuthintelwe imingcipheko ebangelwa kukuguquguquka kwexabiso, isantya sokusebenzisa umthamo jikelele wabavelisi bemibhobho edityanisiweyo yayikwicala eliphantsi ukusuka ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMeyi. Nangona imveliso yefektri yombhobho yaqala ukwanda ngokucacileyo ngokunyuka kwenzuzo yomzi-mveliso wombhobho ngoFebruwari, nokuba idlula ixesha elifanayo lalo nyaka uphelileyo, imveliso yombhobho yaqala ukuhla ngokukhawuleza ekupheleni kukaMatshi xa inzuzo yombhobho yawa ngokukhawuleza. Okwangoku, ingqiqo yokubonelela kunye nemfuno yemibhobho edibeneyo isekho kwindlela ebuthathaka yokubonelela kunye nemfuno.
Umzobo 5: Utshintsho lwemibhobho edityanisiweyo ephuma kwiifektri zemibhobho yesiqhelo engama-29 yasekhaya (iyunithi: iitoni ezili-10,000)
Umthombo weDatha: Idatha yeNsimbi yeNsimbi
Umzobo 6: Utshintsho kuluhlu lwemveliso egqityiweyo yeefektri zemibhobho eziqhelekileyo ezingama-29 (iyunithi: iitoni ezili-10,000)
Umthombo weDatha: Idatha yeNsimbi yeNsimbi
V. Imeko esezantsi yombhobho odityanisiweyo
Ngokombono we-real estate market, i-real estate market iyancipha kwiminyaka yamuva nje, kwaye imfuno yezindlu ayanelanga Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Aprili, utyalo-mali lwelizwe lophuhliso lwezindlu lwaluyi-3,551.4 yeebhiliyoni ze-yuan, phantsi kwe-6.2% ngonyaka; Phakathi kwabo, utyalo-mali lokuhlala lwaluyi-2,707.2 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, phantsi kwe-4.9%. Kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo, iingingqi ezohlukeneyo ziye zakhupha ngokulandelelana imigaqo-nkqubo eyahlukeneyo yokukhuthaza ukufunyanwa kwakhona kwemarike yezindlu nomhlaba, umzekelo, ukucuthwa komlinganiselo wemali-mboleko, isixa sengxowa-mali yeprovident kunye nesiqinisekiso sokuthenga izindlu. Ekupheleni kwekota yokuqala, izixeko ezingama-96 ziye zadibana neemeko zokuthomalalisa umda osezantsi wenzala yokuqala yemali mboleko yezindlu, phakathi kwazo izixeko ezingama-83 zawuthoba umyinge osezantsi wenzala yemali mboleko yezindlu kunye nezixeko ezili-12 zawucima ngokuthe ngqo umda ophantsi wenzala yokuqala yemali mboleko yendlu. Emva koSuku lukaMeyi, iindawo ezininzi ziyaqhubeka nokuhlengahlengisa ipolisi yemali-mboleko yeprovident fund. Kulo nyaka, ithoni ephambili yomgaqo-nkqubo webhanki ephakathi kwimarike yendawo yokuhlala "ukulawula kokubili okubandayo kunye nokutshisa", engaxhasi kuphela izixeko ezijongene nobunzima obukhulu kwimarike yendawo yokuhlala ukuze isebenzise ngokupheleleyo ibhokisi yesixhobo somgaqo-nkqubo, kodwa ifuna kwakhona ukuba izixeko ezinokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezindlu ukuba zihoxise kumgaqo-nkqubo wenkxaso ngexesha. Ngokuphunyezwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo eyahlukeneyo, kulindeleke ukuba umgangatho jikelele wokubuyisela imarike ye-real estate uya kuhlala ungatshintshi kulo nyaka, kodwa izinga lokubuyisela lonke liya kuhamba.
Xa kujongwa izinga lokukhula kotyalo-mali lweziseko ezingundoqo, ngokweenkcukacha ezikhutshwe yi-National Bureau of Statistics, ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Epreli, utyalo-mali lweziseko zophuhliso lwesizwe (ngaphandle kombane, ubushushu, igesi kunye nemveliso yamanzi kunye namashishini okubonelela) lunyuke nge-8.5% unyaka nonyaka. Phakathi kwazo, utyalo-mali kuthutho lukaloliwe lunyuke nge-14.0%, ulawulo lolondolozo lwamanzi nge-10.7%, uthutho lweendlela nge-5.8% kunye nolawulo lwamaziko oluntu nge-4.7%. Ngobunzima bolawulo kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yokulawula i-counter-cyclical, ukwakhiwa kwezakhiwo kulindeleke ukuba kudlale indima exhasayo.
Ngo-Epreli, i-index yabaphathi bokuthenga (PMI) yoshishino lokuvelisa yayiyi-49.2%, phantsi kweepesenti ze-2.7 zeepesenti ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo, ephantsi kuneyona ndawo ibalulekileyo, kwaye inqanaba lokuchuma kweshishini lokuvelisa liyehla, liwela kuluhlu lwe-contraction okokuqala ukususela ngoFebruwari. Ngokubhekiselele kumashishini, isalathiso semisebenzi yoshishino yoshishino lolwakhiwo ibiyi-63.9%, ihle nge-1.7 yeepesenti kwinyanga ephelileyo. Isalathiso semveliso yemveliso kunye nemfuno yehlile, ngenxa yokungonelanga kwemfuno yemarike. Nangona isalathiso somsebenzi weshishini loshishino lokwakha sehle kancinci ngo-Epreli xa kuthelekiswa nenyanga edlulileyo, i-PMI yoshishino lokwakha yayingaphezulu kwama-60% kwiinyanga ezintathu ezilandelelanayo, ebisagcina inqanaba eliphezulu lokuchuma. Ishishini lokwakha kulindeleke ukuba liphucuke, kodwa ukubuyiswa kwemveliso kunye nemfuno kwishishini kusafuna ukubuyiselwa ngokuthe ngcembe.
VI. Imbonakalo yeMarike
Iindleko: NgoJuni, ngomjikelo weshumi wokunyuka kwexabiso le-coke, imvakalelo yentengiso yehla ngakumbi. Okwangoku, ukusebenza ngokubanzi kwe-coke kunye ne-iron ore fundamentals kusekho kwimeko yokubonelela okunamandla kunye nokubonelela okungenamandla, ngelixa i-steel mills inolindelo olubi kwiimfuno zexesha elizayo, ngoko ke ukuqaliswa kwemveliso akuyi kuba yinto eqhelekileyo kwixesha elifutshane, kwaye uxinzelelo luya kunikwa izinto eziluhlaza. Ukususela ekupheleni kukaMeyi ukuya ekuqaleni kukaJuni, yimozulu yobushushu obuphezulu emazantsi. Ngokunyuka kwemfuno yombane wendawo yokuhlala kunye neendawo eziphezulu zezixhobo zombane ukulungiselela amalahle ehlotyeni, imfuno yamalahle iya kuba ne-inflection point, kodwa iya kukhokelela ekwehleni kwamaxabiso e-iron ore. Ngexesha elifutshane, kunye nokuncipha kwenkxaso yeendleko, amaxabiso e-strip steel angaqhubeka ebuthathaka.
Imeko yobonelelo: Ekuqaleni kukaJuni, izinga lokusebenza kwamashishini okuvelisa imibhobho edityanisiweyo yehle kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ophelileyo, kwaye uluhlu lweefektri zemibhobho luqhubekile luhla. Kwixesha elizayo elingekude, uxinzelelo lwe-inventri yefektri yombhobho ayinkulu, kwaye imveliso yefektri yombhobho iya kwanda emva kokuba inzuzo yefektri yombhobho ilungiswe ngokucacileyo.
Imfuno: Kwisiseko sokwenza nzulu iprojekthi yokulinga kunye nokushwankathela kunye nokwazisa amava anokuphindaphindwa, i-China iya kuqalisa iprojekthi yokhuseleko lweziseko ezingundoqo zasezidolophini ngendlela ejikelezayo. Kuyimfuneko ukuba kuqhutywe uphando ngokubanzi lweziseko ezingundoqo zasezidolophini, kusekwe uvimba weenkcukacha zeziseko ezingundoqo zedolophu ezigquma umhlaba kunye naphantsi komhlaba, kuchongwe imithombo yomngcipheko kunye neendawo zomngcipheko kwiziseko ezingundoqo zedolophu, kwaye kuqulunqwe uluhlu lweengozi zokhuseleko ezidolophini. Ubomi beziseko ezingundoqo zasezidolophini bubhekiselele kwiziseko ezingundoqo zasezidolophini ezifana nerhasi, iibhulorho, unikezelo lwamanzi, ukuhanjiswa kwamanzi, unikezelo lobushushu kunye netonela esetyenziswayo, ezingohlulwa kwimisebenzi yasezidolophini nobomi babantu. Kanye “njengemithambo-luvo” kunye “nemithambo yegazi” yomzimba womntu, sisiqinisekiso sokusebenza ngokukhuselekileyo kwezixeko.
VII. Isishwankathelo
Ngokubanzi, kwikota yokuqala, phantsi kolindelo olungcono lwe-macro, ixabiso lemibhobho edibeneyo yaxhaswa kancinci. Ukusukela ngo-Epreli ukuya kuMeyi, ukusebenza okusisiseko kwe-char yamalahle kunye nentsimbi yentsimbi yomelele kwaye ibuthathaka, kwaye nenkxaso yeendleko yaba buthathaka. Nangona utyalo-mali lweziseko ezingundoqo lukhula, umkhwa oqhelekileyo wokubuyiswa kweemarike kwishishini le-real estate uhlala ungatshintshi kulo nyaka, kodwa isantya sokubuyisela sihamba kancinci. Ngokuqala kweprojekthi yokhuseleko lwendlela yokuphila yeziseko ezingundoqo zasezidolophini, imfuno yemibhobho yentsimbi inokunyuka kwixesha elizayo elingekude, kodwa ibhalansi phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno iya kuthatha ixesha elithile. Xa kudityaniswa nomgaqo-nkqubo wenzala ephezulu ye-Fed, ingxaki yebhanki iyaqhubeka nokuvuthela, kwaye iprimiyamu yomngcipheko wehlabathi iya kunyuka kakhulu, nto leyo eya kwandisa ukuguquguquka kweemarike zemveliso kwaye inokuchaphazela ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kumazwe angaphandle. Lilonke, kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso lemibhobho edityanisiweyo kazwelonke lisazoyeka ukuhla kwaye lizinzile ukusuka ngoJuni ukuya kuJulayi.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-28-2023